Toronto · Ontario · 2026–27 season
Snow Day Predictor TorontoWill school be cancelled tomorrow in Toronto?
Live overnight forecast for the City of Toronto, Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, East York, York, and the downtown core. The predictor tunes to TDSB and TCDSB closure patterns, with Toronto Student Transportation Group bus cancellation probability returned separately.
Multi-model forecast, five-factor closure engine, province-aware results. No sign-up, no tracking of your queries.
What makes Toronto unique
Toronto is the home of Canada’s largest school board, the Toronto District School Board enrolls more than 230,000 students. TDSB has not fully closed for snow in many recent winters, while its bus cancellations through the Toronto Student Transportation Group are routine. No other Canadian city has such a wide gap between school-closure and bus-cancellation probability.
Greater Toronto Area forecast
Toronto snow day forecast, what to expect this winter
Toronto sits on the north shore of Lake Ontario, exposing the city to two distinct winter weather drivers: lake-effect snow squalls when northwesterly winds cross the still-warm lake in early winter, and the Colorado low track that delivers most major southern Ontario storms from late December through March. Annual snowfall in the city averages around 120 cm, modest by Canadian standards, but the variability is high, with seasons ranging from 70 cm to over 200 cm depending on the storm pattern. The forecast for any given school day depends less on the seasonal total and more on what falls between 8 pm and 8 am.
School operations in Toronto are split between the Toronto District School Board (TDSB), Canada’s largest at over 230,000 students, and the Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB). Both boards rarely close school buildings outright for weather. Even on storms that close every district elsewhere in the GTA, Toronto’s dense walking-distance schools, robust plowing through the City of Toronto Transportation Services, and high transit availability keep most schools physically open. What does close, regularly, is the school bus network. The Toronto Student Transportation Group (TSTG) coordinates buses across both TDSB and TCDSB and cancels several times each winter, usually for the same morning forecast that keeps the buildings open.
For most Toronto families, the practical question is not "will the school close?" but "will buses run?" That is why our forecast returns two separate probabilities, and why the bus-cancellation number is typically the more useful one for Toronto-area parents. The school-closure probability stays low even in significant storms; the bus number climbs sharply with the same overnight snowfall, freezing rain, or wind chill the TSTG director is watching on the same forecast models we are.
School boards
Toronto school boards we model
The boards and transportation operators that make the morning closure call for Toronto.
- Toronto District School Board (TDSB)
Canada’s largest school board with over 230,000 students. Rarely closes buildings; routes its weather decisions through Toronto Student Transportation Group for bus operations.
- Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB)
Catholic schools across Toronto. Closure decisions typically align with TDSB and TSTG; the boards coordinate on weather days.
- Conseil scolaire Viamonde
French-language public school board serving Toronto and southern Ontario; smaller footprint, separate closure decisions.
- Conseil scolaire catholique MonAvenir
French-language Catholic board across Toronto and central-south Ontario.
Bus transportation
Toronto Student Transportation Group (TSTG) coordinates bus operations for both TDSB and TCDSB. TSTG cancellation decisions are made between 5:30 and 6:00 am the morning of and apply across the entire Toronto network. The Conseil scolaire Viamonde and MonAvenir French boards operate separate transportation and may make different calls on the same day.
Local weather
Toronto’s signature winter weather patterns
The phenomena that produce most Toronto snow days.
- Lake Ontario lake-effect snow
Most reliable in November and December before Lake Ontario freezes. Bands set up downwind of northwesterly winds, affecting Scarborough, the Bluffs, and east-end neighbourhoods most heavily. Pickering and Whitby (Durham Region) often see heavier accumulation than downtown Toronto.
- Colorado low storms
The dominant major-storm pattern for Toronto from January through March. Storms originating over the Colorado Rockies track northeast across the Great Lakes and deliver 20+ cm snowfalls with mixed precipitation. Most modern Toronto closures (2013, 2022) are Colorado low events.
- Alberta clipper bursts
Fast-moving low-pressure systems from the Prairies. Less total snowfall than Colorado lows but often produce 10-15 cm in 6 hours with sharp temperature drops behind the front. Frequent in January and February.
- Freezing rain corridor
When warm air aloft overruns a cold surface layer, Toronto sits in a freezing-rain band that has produced multiple major ice events (December 2013, April 2018). Ice glazes weigh more than snow on tree limbs, leading to widespread power outages and school closures.
- Downtown urban heat island
The downtown core, midtown, and waterfront average 2–4 °C warmer than the airport region (Pearson, Mississauga) in winter. A storm that drops snow in Etobicoke can fall as freezing rain or rain downtown, and our forecast pulls hourly data at your exact postal code rather than averaging across the city.
History
Notable Toronto snow days in recent winters
Storms and ice events that shaped how Toronto school boards approach the morning call.
GTA blizzard
January 14, 2022A Colorado low dropped 30+ cm of snow on Toronto with 70 km/h winds in a single overnight period. TDSB closed all schools, a rare full-network closure. TSTG cancelled buses; the TTC suspended above-ground streetcar service. The clearest recent example of a storm severe enough to overcome Toronto’s normal high tolerance.
Greater Toronto ice storm
December 21-22, 2013A freezing-rain event coated the GTA with up to 30 mm of ice glaze, knocking out power for over 300,000 homes and forcing TDSB and TCDSB to close for multiple days into the Christmas holidays. The defining modern Toronto ice event.
February 2008 storm
February 6-8, 2008Multi-day snowfall accumulating 30+ cm across the city; TSTG cancelled buses for two consecutive days. Toronto Pearson saw operations disrupted.
Toronto Snowstorm
January 2, 1999The benchmark Toronto winter event. Back-to-back storms deposited 118 cm of snow on Toronto over two weeks. Mayor Mel Lastman called in the Canadian Armed Forces for snow removal. TDSB and TCDSB closed for several days running. The storm is still cited every time Toronto faces a major snow event.
April ice storm
April 14-15, 2018A late-season storm coated the GTA with 25 mm of freezing rain over two days; TDSB closed for safety. A reminder that Toronto’s snow day risk extends well past March.
Late winter snow event
February 27, 2020A Colorado low delivered 20 cm to Toronto with 50 km/h winds; TSTG cancelled buses, though TDSB kept buildings open, the textbook Toronto outcome.
FAQ
Toronto snow day frequently asked questions
The 7 questions Toronto parents and teachers ask us most.
Will TDSB close tomorrow?
Type your Toronto postal code or "Toronto, Ontario" into the predictor above. The Toronto District School Board (TDSB) rarely closes its school buildings for weather, even on storms severe enough to close every other GTA district. The more useful signal for most Toronto parents is the bus cancellation probability, which Toronto Student Transportation Group (TSTG) calls between 5:30 and 6:00 am the morning of. Both probabilities are shown in the result.
Are TDSB school buses cancelled today?
For the official call, check the Toronto Student Transportation Group bus delay portal (busplanner.com/tstg) or TDSB’s Twitter feed. TSTG announces bus cancellations between 5:30 and 6:00 am the morning of, applicable to both TDSB and TCDSB routes across Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, East York, York, and the downtown core. Our predictor gives you an advance probability the night before based on the overnight forecast.
Why does Toronto rarely close schools but cancel buses often?
Toronto has Canada’s densest walking-distance school network combined with the country’s most extensive municipal plowing capacity. Most students can safely walk to a TDSB or TCDSB school in conditions that would close rural Ontario districts. The school bus system, however, services longer routes, including specialized programs and accessibility needs, where road safety thresholds are tighter. The result: buses cancel for weather that does not close the building.
What is Toronto Student Transportation Group (TSTG)?
TSTG is the joint transportation consortium that operates buses for both TDSB and TCDSB. It is one of the largest school transportation operations in Canada. TSTG makes the morning weather call independently of the school boards themselves, meaning TDSB and TCDSB can be open while TSTG cancels routes city-wide. The official portal is busplanner.com/tstg.
How much snow does it usually take to cancel Toronto school buses?
TSTG typically cancels buses for 10–15 cm of overnight snowfall, 2+ mm of freezing rain, or wind chill near −30 °C, or any combination of those. Single-factor 5–10 cm snowfalls rarely trigger a cancellation in Toronto. The combination that causes most Toronto bus cancellations is moderate overnight snow plus a morning rush hour that overlaps the storm’s heaviest hours.
How does Lake Ontario lake-effect snow affect Toronto?
Lake-effect snow forms when cold air crosses the warmer waters of Lake Ontario, typically in November and early December before the lake freezes. Bands set up downwind of northwesterly winds, affecting Scarborough, the Bluffs, and the city’s east end most heavily. Pickering, Ajax, and Whitby (just east of Toronto in Durham Region) often see 2–3 times the snowfall of downtown in the same event. Our forecast pulls hourly data at your specific coordinates, so the lake-effect band shows up correctly when it sits over your neighbourhood.
Will school be cancelled tomorrow in Scarborough, North York, or Etobicoke?
All Toronto neighbourhoods, Scarborough, North York, Etobicoke, East York, York, and downtown, are served by TDSB and TCDSB, which operate as single citywide systems for closure decisions. A TSTG bus cancellation applies city-wide. Enter your specific postal code in the predictor to get the forecast for your neighbourhood; we use your exact coordinates rather than averaging across the city.
Near Toronto
Nearby Ontario cities
Other Ontario cities our forecast covers — same regional profile, different local weather.
Looking for forecasts across the rest of Ontario? View the Ontario hub with all school boards, transportation consortia, weather zones, and a full city directory. Or browse the provinces & territories hub for every Canadian region.
Also in Ontario: Ottawa · London · Kitchener · Waterloo · Barrie · Kingston · Windsor · Sudbury · Thunder Bay
Check your overnight snow day chance in Toronto now
The predictor pulls live multi-model forecast data for your exact Toronto postal code.
Run the Toronto predictor →