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Snow Day Predictor Canada

Markham · Ontario · 2026–27 season

Snow Day Predictor MarkhamWill school be cancelled tomorrow in Markham?

Live overnight forecast for Markham, including Unionville, Cornell, Cathedraltown, Berczy Village, Thornhill, Milliken, and Box Grove. The predictor tunes to York Region District School Board and York Catholic closure patterns, with York Region Student Transportation Services bus cancellation probability returned separately.

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What makes Markham unique

Markham is one of Canada’s most diverse cities and the largest Asian-Canadian municipality. As a York Region city, it sits in a snow squall corridor that runs from Aurora through Stouffville and produces winter weather Toronto sometimes misses.

York Region forecast

Markham snow day forecast, what to expect this winter

Markham sits in central York Region, immediately north of Toronto and east of Vaughan, on a gentle rise toward the Oak Ridges Moraine. That position matters in winter. The city is far enough inland to lose Lake Ontario’s moderating influence on cold nights, sits in the York Region snow squall corridor that runs north-south from Aurora through Stouffville, and picks up elevation enhancement from the moraine on storm tracks that drop only flurries in downtown Toronto. The result is a snow day pattern that often runs heavier than the City of Toronto in the same Colorado low event.

School operations in Markham are split between the York Region District School Board (YRDSB), the larger public board serving roughly 130,000 students across York Region, and the York Catholic District School Board (YCDSB). Both boards make weather decisions at the regional level, which means a closure in Markham almost always means a closure in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, Aurora, Stouffville, and East Gwillimbury as well. Buses are coordinated by York Region Student Transportation Services (STSYR), a single consortium that cancels routes across the entire region when conditions warrant.

For Markham families the practical question is rarely "is the storm hitting?" but "will York Region cancel buses while Toronto stays open?" That outcome happens several times each winter. A Colorado low tracking south of the lake can dump 5 cm on downtown Toronto and 18 cm on Stouffville, leaving Markham caught in the middle with a STSYR cancellation while TSTG keeps Toronto buses running. Our forecast returns separate school-closure and bus-cancellation probabilities so you can see the gap before the morning call goes out.

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School boards

Markham school boards we model

The boards and transportation operators that make the morning closure call for Markham.

  • York Region District School Board (YRDSB)

    The larger York Region public board, serving roughly 130,000 students across Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, Aurora, and East Gwillimbury. Closure decisions apply region-wide.

  • York Catholic District School Board (YCDSB)

    Catholic schools across York Region. Closure calls typically align with YRDSB but are made independently; STSYR coordinates buses for both boards.

  • Conseil scolaire Viamonde

    French-language public school board serving Markham and southern Ontario. Smaller footprint, separate closure decisions on weather days.

  • Conseil scolaire catholique MonAvenir

    French-language Catholic board across Markham and central-south Ontario. Separate weather decisions from the English boards.

Bus transportation

York Region Student Transportation Services (STSYR) coordinates buses for YRDSB and YCDSB across Markham, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and East Gwillimbury. Cancellation decisions are made in the early morning and apply to the entire York Region network, meaning a STSYR cancellation in Markham automatically applies in Vaughan, Newmarket, and the rest of the region. The French boards run separate transportation and may make different calls on the same storm.

Local weather

Markham’s signature winter weather patterns

The phenomena that produce most Markham snow days.

  • York Region snow squall corridor

    A north-south band running from Aurora through Whitchurch-Stouffville and into northern Markham that catches northwest-to-northerly snow squalls more reliably than Toronto. The corridor is enhanced by elevation and inland position, and produces 15-25 cm events that drop only flurries on the Lake Ontario shoreline.

  • Lake Ontario lake-effect spillover

    When wind direction aligns just east of north, lake-effect bands that normally hit Scarborough and Pickering rotate inland and clip southern Markham, especially Milliken, Box Grove, and the southern Markham Road corridor. Spillover events are less common than direct hits but produce sharp local accumulations.

  • Oak Ridges Moraine elevation enhancement

    The Oak Ridges Moraine north of Markham rises 250-300 metres above Lake Ontario. Storms riding up that gradient cool and squeeze out extra precipitation. Northern Markham, Cathedraltown, and Cornell often see 20-30% more snow than the southern Markham flats.

  • Colorado low storm track

    The dominant major-storm pattern for southern Ontario from January through March. Colorado lows tracking northeast across the Great Lakes deliver 20+ cm snowfalls with mixed precipitation across all of York Region. The January 2022 GTA blizzard and December 2013 ice storm were both Colorado low events.

  • Cold-air pooling in the Rouge Valley

    The Rouge River and its tributaries cut a valley through eastern Markham. On clear, calm nights, cold air drains into the valley and pools, dropping overnight lows 3-5 °C below the surrounding plateau. This shifts precipitation type at the valley floor, producing freezing rain or ice pellets in Cornell and Box Grove while areas a few kilometres west see plain snow.

History

Notable Markham snow days in recent winters

Storms and ice events that shaped how Markham school boards approach the morning call.

  • GTA blizzard

    January 17, 2022

    A Colorado low dropped 30-45 cm of snow across York Region in a single overnight period with 70 km/h winds. YRDSB and YCDSB closed all schools, STSYR cancelled all buses, and the City of Markham declared a significant weather event. Northern Markham and Stouffville saw the heaviest totals, with the snow squall corridor producing measurably more accumulation than central Toronto.

  • York Region ice storm

    December 21-22, 2013

    A freezing-rain event coated York Region with up to 30 mm of ice glaze, knocking out power across Markham for days and snapping mature trees throughout Unionville and Thornhill. YRDSB and YCDSB schools closed for multiple days into the Christmas break. The defining modern York Region ice event.

  • Late-season ice storm

    April 14-15, 2018

    A two-day freezing rain event coated York Region with 25 mm of ice in mid-April. YRDSB closed schools for safety as branches and power lines came down across Markham. A reminder that York Region’s snow and ice risk extends well past March, and that late-season events are often more damaging than mid-winter storms because trees are budding out.

  • Polar vortex closures

    January 30-31, 2019

    A polar vortex displacement sent wind chills to -45 °C across York Region. YRDSB and YCDSB closed schools both days, citing student safety at bus stops and on walking routes. STSYR cancelled buses; the City of Markham opened warming centres. Pure cold rather than snowfall drove the closures.

  • November lake-effect event

    November 18, 2014

    A persistent northerly flow over a still-warm Lake Ontario set up lake-effect bands that drifted inland and dumped 20 cm on southern Markham overnight. STSYR cancelled buses across York Region the next morning despite Toronto receiving only 6 cm. A textbook example of York Region picking up lake-effect spillover that downtown Toronto misses.

  • York Region snow squall

    February 12, 2019

    A sharp northwest snow squall set up directly over the Aurora-Stouffville corridor and stalled for six hours, dropping 25 cm on northern Markham and Cathedraltown while Toronto Pearson recorded under 5 cm. YRDSB and YCDSB closed; STSYR cancelled. The clearest recent example of the York Region squall corridor in isolation.

FAQ

Markham snow day frequently asked questions

The 7 questions Markham parents and teachers ask us most.

Will YRDSB close tomorrow?

Type your Markham postal code or "Markham, Ontario" into the predictor above. The York Region District School Board (YRDSB) makes closure decisions for the entire region, so a closure in Markham also applies in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Newmarket, Aurora, and the rest of York Region. YRDSB tends to close more readily than the Toronto District School Board because York Region bus routes are longer and the snow squall corridor produces heavier snowfall than the Lake Ontario shoreline.

Are York Region school buses cancelled today?

For the official call, check the York Region Student Transportation Services (STSYR) bus delay portal or the YRDSB and YCDSB social media feeds. STSYR announces bus cancellations in the early morning and the call applies to the entire York Region network, covering Markham, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and East Gwillimbury. Our predictor gives you an advance probability the night before based on the overnight forecast.

Why does Markham see more snow than Toronto in some storms?

Three reasons. First, Markham sits in the York Region snow squall corridor, a north-south band that runs from Aurora through Stouffville and catches squalls inland of the lake. Second, the Oak Ridges Moraine north of Markham forces air to rise, cool, and drop additional snow on storm tracks that only deliver flurries to the Lake Ontario shore. Third, Markham is far enough inland to lose the lake’s warming effect on cold nights, which lets precipitation fall as snow rather than mixed types. The same Colorado low can drop 5 cm on downtown Toronto and 18 cm on Stouffville with Markham caught in between.

Will school be cancelled in Unionville or Cornell tomorrow?

YRDSB and YCDSB make closure decisions at the regional level rather than by neighbourhood, so a closure in Unionville, Cornell, Cathedraltown, Berczy Village, Thornhill, Milliken, or Box Grove will apply to all Markham schools and across York Region. Enter your specific Markham postal code in the predictor for the most accurate overnight forecast at your exact coordinates, particularly important in eastern Markham where the Rouge Valley can shift precipitation type and accumulation totals over short distances.

Does YCDSB Catholic always close with YRDSB?

Usually but not always. The York Catholic District School Board (YCDSB) makes its weather decisions independently of YRDSB, though the two boards coordinate informally and share STSYR transportation. In practice the boards close together on roughly 90% of weather days. The occasional split happens when one board reads a marginal forecast differently, or when a closure call hinges on a specific bus operator’s ability to staff routes. STSYR bus cancellations apply equally to both boards regardless of whether buildings stay open.

How does the York Region snow squall corridor work?

The corridor is a north-south band, roughly 30 km wide, that runs from Aurora through Whitchurch-Stouffville and into northern Markham. When upper-level winds come out of the northwest or north, snow squalls organize along that band and stall, dumping 15-25 cm in a few hours while areas to the east and west see flurries. The corridor is enhanced by the Oak Ridges Moraine elevation and by the inland position that loses the lake’s warming influence. The corridor activates on roughly 5-8 days each winter and accounts for a disproportionate share of York Region snow day closures.

How is Markham winter weather different from Toronto?

Markham averages roughly 20-30% more annual snowfall than downtown Toronto, runs 2-4 °C colder on clear winter nights, and sits in the York Region snow squall corridor that the Lake Ontario shoreline misses entirely. The practical effect on school days: York Region closes and cancels buses more frequently than Toronto in the same season, often on storms that leave downtown Toronto operating normally. If you moved to Markham from Toronto, expect more snow day closures and more bus cancellations through STSYR than you saw under TSTG in Toronto.

Near Markham

Nearby Ontario cities

Other Ontario cities our forecast covers — same regional profile, different local weather.

Looking for forecasts across the rest of Ontario? View the Ontario hub with all school boards, transportation consortia, weather zones, and a full city directory. Or browse the provinces & territories hub for every Canadian region.

Also in Ontario: Hamilton · Ottawa · London · Kitchener · Waterloo · Kingston · Windsor · Sudbury · Thunder Bay

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